Archive

Archive for the ‘Investing’ Category

Sensible Tips for Newbie Investors

June 15th, 2007

If you're new here I invite you to see the SiteMap. I'll be delighted if you want to subscribe to my RSS feed or Email alert. Thanks for visiting!

 Found this sensible piece in a group by Vivek Karwa. Thanks Vivek for permitting me to quote you here on my blog.
************************************************************************************
I hope everyone of you know that all kinds of activities pick up in a Bull Market. This happens since each person starts thinking that Money Making in Stock Market is a child’s play! And thus people fall to any extent to earn the fast buck. India has been witnessing a Bull run past 3-4 yrs and such activities are bound to happen.

You may not believe that there were around 35 Analysts (I call them Budding Analysts) sending at least 25 recommendations each on my yahoo messenger daily a year back. They started thinking that what ever they recommend goes up hence they have mastered stock picking. Then came the May crash.

I now have just three people on messenger sending calls! And none of them is from the May list. They lost their money, became analysts and then lost peoples money!

In a Bull market , some of the activities which increase are:-

1.. Boom in stock brokers and sub-brokers offices since more and more people want to trade.
2.. People luring others to trade and invest in various financial products including Mutual Funds to earn higher commissions.
3.. Fund houses coming up with NFO’s every next day.
4.. Sharp increase in Analysts/Advisors
5.. And why to miss our topic. Boom in Technical Analysis Software Sellers!!

I would like to caution every one on this!!

Before buying any software and spending Lakhs on it think once:-

1. Do people start earning money just because of buying a software? If yes then why cant each one of us buy and make big money.

2. Do people owning software Never Loose Money? They only make??

3. If your main activity of earning money is a different profession then can u utilize the software to its full value?

4. Does it not make sense to subscribe for calls for a portion of the money and concentrate on your main acivity? (Iam not trying to promote myself here or seeking subscription - but there’s sense in my words)

So think twice before investing in softwares, may be the same money can be utilized in a better manner.

Rgds

Vivek Karwa
Mob: +91-98405-40575

Investing, Stocks

Financial Literacy Programme for Me and You

June 14th, 2007

I need to go through a financial literacy programme and I am making that effort. So do you, dude.

I’ve hated finance. Maybe because I was not able to understand the jargons and the maths. But I guess ignoring personal finance worsens the situation. And the only way to get maximum out of your personal finance is to look it into its eye and grapple with it. You will come out stronger.

If you think it’s too early for you to bother, let me tell you that the first principle of investing is to start early and see the magic of compounding. College grads, fresh MBAs and guys under 25, the smart thing to do is to start now.

Do you think that you have mastered the basics but are not able to use it to your advantage, it’s time to put your thinking cap on and review your strategies. Learn from your failures. Often we tend to get stricken by some deadly internal enemies which Kartik Jhaveri details here.

Some of you guys would be rich enough not to be bothered about these mundane things. But have you ever given a thought that you are in a position to contribute to the nation’s economy by being more efficient about your finances. Wealth has the unique ability to create more wealth. Are you using that power?

Before I move on, let me articulate the background to this financial literacy programme that I am so smitten about. The following facts and questions keep on humming in my mind:

  1. Equities give the best returns and you are putting your money in a professionally managed corporate organisation. Compare this with your insurance products which give much lesser returns and your money is invested in the Government which is inefficient with your money, to say the least.
  2. However the total AUM under Mutual Funds is about Rs 3.5 lakh crores while LIC alone manages funds worth more than Rs 6 lakh crore. Yes it’s true that LIC has been there for over 50 years and has a huge distribution reach. But it has hardly tapped the huge insurance potential that India has.
  3. Financial experts scoff at ULIP saying that it’s very expensive compared to Mutual Funds. But LIC collected more than Rs 25000 crore in 2006-07 and it’s total fund under ULIP is approx 40000 crore which is more than UTI’s AUM of approx 39000 crore (since existence)

All this and more points to widespread financial illiteracy at all levels. Be it college grads, software geeks, MBAs, Engineers, even CFA/Economists( they are experts at business finance or government finance) and even Financial advisors (they rarely have a holistic view), everyone needs to be literate about his personal finances.

And there are over 700 mutual funds, 5000 stocks, 300 insurance policies and hundreds of other financial products to choose from!!

Interested! And the literacy programme that I have in mind will have the following details:

  • Financial planning basics.
  • Financial markets.
  • Financial products like Mutual Funds, Stocks.
  • Research reports, Financial analysis, technical analysis.
  • Insurance : Basics, Company review, product review.
  • ETF : Basics, Company review, product review.
  • Bonds : Basics, Company review, product review.
  • Tax Planning : Basics, product review.
  • Retirement Planning : Basics, product review.
  • Children’s education. : Basics, Company review, product review.
  • Calculators :Budgeting, Networth, Loan, Asset allocator, Risk analyser,etc.

Any suggestions. And if you are interested why don’t you subscribe to my RSS feed or by email. And tell your friends too. I’ll cover them one at a time. [ I need to learn them and then only I can share it with you :) ]

Btw, if your eyebrows are tensed up and you are thinking why I am making so much effort working on this financial literacy programme, I’ll tell you my secret. It’s for the website I dream of every day and night!! The site launches in August’07.

Asset Allocation, Budgeting, ETF, Financial Literacy Series, Index Funds, India, Insurance, Investing, Mutual Funds, Personal Finance, Planning, Stocks

Financial Literacy Drive Treasure Post

June 12th, 2007

This post links to a treasure trove of information on personal finance. Actually, April was National Financial Literacy Month in the US and JDR (GetRichSlowly) has the ultimate collection of posts covering everything on Personal Finance.

Other than the 20 posts linking to the literacy drive, he also links to his popular articles and the websites which provide such information. Maybe it’s all dry information, but you can do well to bookmark that post and keep coming back to it. It’s dry, but important for you. Why? Look at the following questions and then decide.

How much do you know about money? Have you learned about the power of compounding? Do you know how the stock market works? What is a bond? Can you tell the difference between an Income Statement, a Balance Sheet, and a Cash Flow Statement? Do you even know why you would want to?

Do you know how to keep a budget? Do you understand how your taxes are used and why we pay them? Do you know what it takes to purchase a house? How much insurance do you need?

Head on to this treasure trove. Even though some posts are US specific, the concepts are useful and important to learn.

Asset Allocation, Budgeting, ETF, Index Funds, Insurance, Investing, Mutual Funds, Personal Finance, Planning

What is Finance?

May 9th, 2007

I was in Rishikesh a few years back in the winters and one old resident told me, “The water is warm when the Sun has not risen. Try it”, with a straight face. Next morning, it was pretty dark when I waded into the “warm waters” of Ganga. Boy, Oh Boy! I did not expect the old man to be so cruel!! :)
But I had the bath of my life. It was invigorating and real fun! I came back and thanked the old man who had tricked me into that chilled out experience.

What’s that experience to do with Finance, you’ll say. Well, I’m an old man by some standards. (This should also mean that I’m young by other standards:). And I want you to have fun with Finance.

Let’s take a look at what Finance means and I’m sure you will find it Fun, Interesting, Nasty, gives an Advantage, Not Precise, Creative and Exciting.

Finance itself has a very wide meaning and it encompasses Business Finance, Personal Finance and Government Finance in general. Here we will focus on Personal Finance only.

Your questions in personal finance would revolve around the following:

How much money will be needed by you at various points in the future?
Where will this money come from (e.g. savings or borrowing)?
How can you protect yourself against unforeseen events in your lives, and risk in financial markets?
How can family assets be best transferred across generations (bequests and inheritance)?
How do taxes (tax subsidies or penalties) affect personal financial decisions?
Your Personal financial decisions will involve paying for education, financing durable goods such as real estate and cars, buying insurance, e.g. health and property insurance, investing and saving for retirement. Personal financial decisions may also involve paying for a loan.

Phew! Are you prepared to wade into the”warm’ waters of Personal Finance? Welcome

Investing, Personal Finance

Transparency in Mutual Funds

May 8th, 2007

Open letter to SEBI by Personalfn.com, a financial planning initiative. It can be reached at info@personalfn.com. I have their permission to reproduce the article.

Dear Mr. Chairman:

The fact sheet of a mutual fund scheme that is released by its Asset Management Company (AMC) is a vital source of information for investors. However, in our view, the information provided by AMCs in these fact sheets is often inadequate and/or incoherent.

At Personalfn, we have always championed the cause of investors. To that end, we present a wish list for disclosure of information in mutual fund fact sheets.

1. Expense ratio The ratio represents the expenses charged by the AMC to the mutual fund for various purposes like investment fees, marketing and selling expenses including agents’ commission and transaction costs among others. These expenses eat into the returns clocked by the investor; expenses in fact have a very significant impact on long-term returns of the scheme. Given its importance, the expense ratio should be published in the fact sheet every month. At present only a handful of AMCs follow such a disclosure policy.

2. Portfolio turnover ratio The portfolio turnover ratio is a measure of how frequently stocks have been bought and sold by the fund manager. The same can offer investors an insight into the fund manager’s investment style. Of course, a higher ‘churn’ also has an implication on the expense ratio. There is a need to ensure that AMCs disclose portfolio turnover ratios in the monthly fact sheet. More importantly, the same needs to be computed in a standard manner. Among the AMCs that choose to reveal portfolio turnover ratios, some make use of a rolling 12-Mth period for the computation, while others consider the financial year as the starting point.

3. Average portfolio maturity It is common to find debt fund fact sheets mentioning the portfolio’s average maturity. As the name suggests, the figure denotes the time to maturity for all the debt instruments in the fund’s portfolio expressed as an average. Conversely, there are others which simply mention the duration (the unit for which is a time period i.e. days/months as well). However, duration (albeit vital) is a distinct measure from the average portfolio maturity. Duration is the tenure for which a portfolio of bonds or a bond must be held, for the investor to be immune to interest rate changes. There is a need to ensure that all debt funds disclose both their average maturities and durations in their fact sheets. Also a standard computation method must be followed so that investors can conduct a meaningful comparison between like schemes across fund houses.

4. Fund manager profile The fact sheets should unambiguously declare the fund manager responsible for every mutual fund scheme along with his profile. Similarly, the period for which he has been managing the given scheme should be mentioned as well. This will prove particularly relevant in situations wherein a successful fund manager, who was responsible for an impressive performance, has been replaced by another fund manager. Investors who are about to get invested in the scheme based on its track record, should be made aware that a new fund manager is now in charge.

5. Is the fund manager invested in the scheme? It is always comforting for consumers to know that the “cook eats his own cooking”. Similarly, a fund manager investing in a fund managed by him can be source of confidence for investors. The monthly fact sheet should have a disclosure in terms of whether or not the fund manager is invested in the scheme.

6. Unambiguous investment objectives Investment objectives like “to achieve log-term capital appreciation” are commonplace in the mutual funds segment. Such objectives are inconclusive and offer no aid to a prospective investor who is contemplating investing in the fund. An ideal investment objective must be unambiguous and comprehensive.
For example, the objective could read, “a growth-styled fund, the fund aims to achieve long-term capital appreciation by investing predominantly (at least 70% of assets) in stocks from the large cap segment. Long-term being defined as at least 5 years and companies with a market capitalisation of over Rs 50 bn (Rs 5,000 crores) at the time of investment qualifying as the large cap segment. The fund can also invest upto 30% of its assets in debt/money market instruments for defensive considerations”.

A rigidly defined investment objective ensures that the investor is decidedly aware of the investment proposition offered by the fund and can make an informed investment decision. The regulator should make this mandatory. Furthermore, the Board of Trustees can at preset time intervals (say semi-annually) offer their comments on the AMC’s adherence/success in achieving the stated investment objective.

7. Portfolio disclosure AMCs have increasingly stopped disclosing entire portfolios in their fact sheets (the printed versions, which are sent to investors). For example, in the case of equity funds most fact sheets simply reveal the top 10 stock holdings. So the fact sheet for an equity fund which holds say 50% of net assets in the top 10 stock holdings doesn’t reveal half the portfolio. Similarly there is also a case for more meaningful disclosure. Related sector holdings can be clubbed to reveal the true diversification levels in the fund’s portfolio. For example, holdings in related sectors like Auto and Auto Ancillaries can be clubbed and shown under a common heading i.e. Auto.

The regulator should make it mandatory for schemes to disclose their complete portfolios and also to follow a standardised classification of companies into sectors.

We believe that the inclusion of the aforementioned disclosure norms will go a long way in furthering the cause of investor empowerment.

Index Funds, India, Investing, Mutual Funds

Power and Magic of Compounding

May 4th, 2007

Simple maths tell us more about the power of starting early and investing regularly rather than any rants. Check out this simple calculator by Hugh where he gives an option to compare two savings/investing options.

I have taken the following case:
Case 1: You start now with a yearly investment of Rs 1000 and stay invested for 40 years.

Case 2: You start after 20 years from now but invest Rs 2000 instead for 20 years.

In both the case, the amount invested is Rs 40,000. Assuming a common growth rate of 10% in both the cases, in case 1 , the accrued balance works out to Rs 442,593 . The accrued balance in case 2 is Rs 114,550.

Why don’t you work it yourself and take away your learnings.

Budgeting, Investing, Personal Finance, Planning

You need to be Lucky and brave!

May 1st, 2007

As an asset class, Equity stocks offer the best returns. But so many of us have burnt our fingers in the process?

How is it that very few investors can make real profits, grow their networth and consistently beat the market? That’s because it often takes one or more of the following rare traits…

The vision to identify breakthrough products, leaders, and brands
The knowledge to spot an undervalued gem in a sea of glass
The courage to buy and hold when others are running scared

Occasionally, you’ll come across an investor with one of these valuable characteristics. And it’s likely that person does quite well. But I can’t imagine a person who can offer all three.

That would take two very different and even contradictory approaches…

Sounds scary? But fortune favors the brave only!!

Investing, Personal Finance, Stocks

Picking up stocks: Real Estate/ Construction

April 30th, 2007

One of the questions to my earler post was how to pick stocks? It is allright to say that, ” You can start with identifying a list of 10-15 companies out of 3-5 sectors which you know or which interests you. You can keep a tab on their management team, financials and future outlook and over a period of time, you will be able to take a call on them.”
But I guess, it’s good in theory. How about doing an analysis of a sector and then take a look at some stocks of that sector. Let’s take a look at the Real Estate/Infrastructure sector which is so much in the news.
So when we do an industry analysis, what are the things we look at? Companies producing similar products are subset of an Industry/Sector. For example, National Hydroelectric Power Company (NHPC) Ltd., National Thermal Power Company (NTPC) Ltd., Tata Power Company (TPC) Ltd. etc. belong to the Power Sector/Industry of India. It is very important to see how the industry to which the company belongs is faring. Specifics like effect of Government policy, future demand of its products etc. need to be checked. At times prospects of an industry may change drastically by any alterations in business environment. For instance, devaluation of rupee may brighten prospects of all export oriented companies. Investment analysts call this as Industry Analysis.
To start with, let’s look at some macro facts and observations about the industry.
The Tenth Five Year Plan has estimated a shortfall of 22.4 million dwelling units in the country. According to one estimate, over the next 10 to 15 years 80 to 90 million housing units will have to be constructed.
The investment required for constructing these dwelling units and for providing related infrastructure during this period will be of the order of $666 billion to $ 888 billion at roughly $33 billion to $44 billion per year ($ 1 billion = Rs 4,400 crore).
There is a steady growth in Housing Finance sector of approx.30 % over last four years.
The rate of interest for housing finance has become reasonable and affordable which has resulted into more credit offtake and subsequent maturing of the housing industry. Even though there is an increase, the rates are still reasonable to my mind after factoring in the tax benefits.
Fiscal benefits provided by the Government of India have encouraged the end users and investors alike.
Income of the urban buyer has grown substantially.
There is tremendous scope and growth in the Infrastructure Development.
Foreign investment by way of FDI has been approved.
Emergence of professional builders in the market with proper accounting standards.Emergence of rating systems for building projects.
The high growth of the real estate sector has led a lager financial institution to launch a dedicated real estate fund. These funds are simultaneously enticing large institutional investors as well as High Net worth Individual (HNIs) to expand their portfolio.
The award of ultra mega power projects and privatisation of airports demonstrates a committment at the highest level. So the momentum to build up roads, ports and urban infrastructure is building up for sure.
The JawaharLal Nehru Mational Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) initiative in 63 cities and urban transport projects will also drive up Investments in Infrastructure. Water Supply projects and sewerage projects would be part of the JNNURM.
So what do you think about the future of Infrastructure stocks in India? Ready to take a call?

There are three major stocks in the Infrastructure sector which is worth talking about. 1. Nagarjuna Construction (NJCC) 2. IVRCL and 3. HCC

Remember, do not go by the order book size alone, which is what many people do without understanding the intricacies. We need to understand the execution period of the order book, and the kind of margins that the company would make, given the kind of raw material prices at which it has booked these orders.

Even though it may look daunting, a lil bit of research helps you in understanding the stocks as well as improving your general knowledge.

Investing, Stocks

Tips on Financial Planning and Budgeting

April 24th, 2007

Getting rich is in your hands, nobody else’s . So get started with working hard or smart (depends on you again), adding to your finance knowledge and generally taking responsibility for yourself. Get Rich Or Die Trying.

If Financial decisions look like rocket science to you and Investing is even more daunting, here are some baby steps for you.

This one is from Deborah Fowles, Guide to Financial Planning in About.com Seems very elementary but I doubt how many people are scoring more than 5/10. Here it goes, the top ten:

1. Get Paid What You’re Worth and Spend Less Than You Earn : Hey, I get less than what I deserve and so do you!! And I’ve not done any budgeting so that I may be sure of the second part.

2. Stick to a Budget : I’m ashamed, no budgeting exercise for myself, not to speak of sticking to one.

3. Pay Off Credit Card Debt: Thank God, I finally get a score on this one. I’ve managed to stay clear though I’ve had to suffer with the agonising interest calculations earlier.

4. Contribute to a Retirement Plan: I do have a pension plan but I’ve never cared to figure out whether it is sufficient! Will give 1/2 for that one to me.

5. Have a Savings Plan: Yeah ,I’ll be partial to myself and give some score here too! I do save about 15% of my income though it’s a recent phenomena. Better late than never!

6. Invest! : Pretty straight forward. But few people manage to find an hour for that in a week. They’ll rather watch TV(Big Boss is on these days!)

7. Maximize Your Employment Benefits : A meeting with your HR guy!! Brace yourself. I have no hope with my guys.

8. Review Your Insurance Coverages: Putting a finger on that is important from the family point of view. Those of you without that responsibility can breathe easy on that count. But I get full marks here!

9. Update Your Will: Never thought about that up till now. Bless Ms Fowles.

10. Keep Good Records: I will, as part of my New Year resolutions. But I’ve yet to get started on that. Next Monday, I promise.

Phew!, I score about 4/10!! So much potential to improve!!

But before I sign off, for guys who suddenly want to get started with their budgeting exercise, here are percentages of major spending categories from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (2003) Consumer Expenditure Survey. May not apply to you and me but it’s an interesting statistic anyway. Gives you an idea where you stand and where you can increase/decrease your expenses.

Food at home 7.7%
Food away from home 5.4%
Alcoholic beverages 1.0%
Total food and drink 14.1%
Housing 32.9%
Apparel and services 4.0%
Vehicles 9.1%
Gasoline and motor oil 3.3%
Other transportation 6.7%
Healthcare 5.9%
Entertainment 5.0%
Personal care products and services 1.3%
Reading .3%
Education 1.9%
Tobacco products and smoking supplies .7%
Miscellaneous 1.5%
Cash contributions 3.4%
Personal insurance and pensions 9.9%

Work on your Budget sheet for two hours and it’ll tell you a lot about yourself. Look at it as a personality test!!

And yes, Taxquery wonders how any financial planning can be successful without tax planning. He’s dead right. Go to his wonderful blog for tons of info on Taxes

Asset Allocation, Budgeting, Investing, Personal Finance, Planning

Work the Magic of Compounding

April 21st, 2007

I spent an hour working in calculating the future values of my investments and worked on MS Excel for that. I found out the “Power of Compounding” and the benefit of “Starting Early”.

If I started at age 20 and invested Rs 2000 every month (Rs 24000 annually), my corpus at age 55 would have amounted to Rs 65 lacs. With similar amount and rate of return, if I started at 40, the corpus would be a miserly Rs 7.62 lacs. I invest less by Rs 4.80 lacs and the corpus difference is Rs 57.42 lacs (1196%)!

To match the returns I would have to invest more. How much? Instead of Rs 24000 every year, I will have to invest Rs 205000!! Rs 1.80 lacs more!

Confounded? Want to see the calculations. Download it here You can toggle around with the age, rate of return, retirement age and the amount to be invested. The parts highlighted by blue color are formulas and should not be changed. As you can see, it is nothing of a rocket science. Simple functions on Excel help you in this analysis.

Investing, Personal Finance